QB · PIT · 2026 fantasy outlook
Aaron Rodgers: 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Aaron Rodgers finished QB18 in 2025, but now costs QB27 at pick 195.5. That is 9 positional places behind his last finish; it creates a useful comparison, not a promise that he repeats it. Our published board ranks him #184, ahead of his price: draft at ADP, with pick 197 as the target.
Why this draft target?
- Our season projection is 13.6 PPR points per game. The model labels his risk medium and upside moderate.
- His latest recorded season (2025) finished at QB18. The table below shows the full 10-season sample rather than treating one finish as a forecast.
- The unblended model ranks him #254, separately from the published board's #184. That disagreement is a caution to examine, not a different pick recommendation.
The verdict compares consensus ADP with the published board, not the raw model. A difference within two picks or 5% of ADP, whichever is larger, is fair price. Target pick also accounts for acquisition timing; it is not a guarantee of availability.
Where the market has him
Our published board has him at 184, 11.5 places higher than consensus ADP. Across 11 ranking sources the spread is 36.7 places — a long way apart. The unblended model sits about 58 places below the market. It is a separate signal from the published board and target pick.
The acquisition target is pick 197, round 20 in a 10-team league. Board rank orders player value; the target pick also accounts for market price. It is a guide, not a guarantee that the player will still be available. The replacement-level quarterback we measure him against is Jalen Hurts, which is the honest comparison: the question is never whether he is good, it is how much better he is than the player you could have instead.
Compare the alternatives
Check the price and trade-offs side by side before deciding.
The track record
Across 10 drafted seasons in our sample, Aaron Rodgers finished at or above his positional draft price 4 times. He returned a severe bust in 2 of them. He played 13 games or fewer in 1 of those seasons — the availability line that separates hits from disasters more sharply than price does.
| Season | Drafted as | Finished | PPG | Games | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | QB27 | QB18 | 14.6 | 16 | — |
| 2024 | QB18 | QB15 | 15.7 | 17 | — |
| 2023 | QB12 | QB76 | 0 | — | Severe bust |
| 2022 | QB10 | QB13 | 14.8 | 17 | — |
| 2021 | QB5 | QB6 | 21.1 | 16 | — |
| 2020 | QB11 | QB3 | 24.3 | 16 | — |
| 2019 | QB3 | QB10 | 17.6 | 16 | — |
| 2018 | QB1 | QB6 | 19.5 | 16 | — |
| 2017 | QB1 | QB29 | 18.5 | 7 | Severe bust |
| 2016 | QB2 | QB1 | 23.8 | 16 | — |
Positional draft rank against final positional finish on PPR total points. A severe bust is a finish outside the top 18 quarterbacks.
Risk and upside
Our model tiers him medium for risk and moderate for upside. Across the 2026 board those two scores are essentially uncorrelated, so a low-risk label is not a low-ceiling label.
Why the model says medium risk: Moderate risk: weekly/market volatility (71.0) with injury-supported risk (65.6) as the secondary driver.
Aaron Rodgers: common questions
Where is Aaron Rodgers being drafted in 2026?
Aaron Rodgers is going around pick 195.5 overall, the QB27 off the board in consensus ADP across the ranking sources we track, though individual sources have him as high as 121 and as low as 250.
Is Aaron Rodgers a good pick in 2026?
VALUE — Draft at the current price if he fits your roster. Aaron Rodgers has a consensus ADP of 195.5 (QB27). Our published board ranks him #184; target him around pick 197 in a 10-team PPR draft.
How risky is Aaron Rodgers?
Our model puts him in the medium risk tier. Risk here combines availability history, role certainty, how much the ranking sources disagree, and week-to-week volatility. It is a measure of how wide the range of outcomes looks, not a prediction that he will get hurt.
How many fantasy points will Aaron Rodgers score in 2026?
Our projection has him at about 13.6 points per game in full PPR, or roughly 187 on the season once 3.3 projected games lost are priced in. Projections are a central estimate, not a floor.
Keep drafting
Drafted around the same cost
ADP is consensus across the ranking sources Auto Draft Years tracks. Historical finishes are positional ranks on PPR total points, 2016–2025. Market snapshot Sep 7, 2026. For informational and entertainment purposes only — projections are estimates, not forecasts.