TE · PHI · 2026 fantasy outlook
Dallas Goedert: 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Dallas Goedert went from TE27 in 2024 to TE7 in 2025. His current TE12 price at pick 122 should be judged against both seasons rather than assuming the latest finish repeats. Our published board ranks him #121, near consensus: draft at price, around pick 122.
Why this draft target?
- Our season projection is 10.1 PPR points per game. The model labels his risk high and upside high.
- His latest recorded season (2025) finished at TE7. The table below shows the full 8-season sample rather than treating one finish as a forecast.
- The unblended model ranks him #89, separately from the published board's #121. That disagreement is a caution to examine, not a different pick recommendation.
The verdict compares consensus ADP with the published board, not the raw model. A difference within two picks or 5% of ADP, whichever is larger, is fair price. Target pick also accounts for acquisition timing; it is not a guarantee of availability.
Where the market has him
Our published board has him at 121, effectively level with the market. Across 16 ranking sources the spread is 18.2 places — a long way apart. The unblended model sits about 33 places above the market. It is a separate signal from the published board and target pick.
The acquisition target is pick 122, round 13 in a 10-team league. Board rank orders player value; the target pick also accounts for market price. It is a guide, not a guarantee that the player will still be available. The replacement-level tight end we measure him against is Harold Fannin, which is the honest comparison: the question is never whether he is good, it is how much better he is than the player you could have instead.
Compare the alternatives
Check the price and trade-offs side by side before deciding.
The track record
Across 8 drafted seasons in our sample, Dallas Goedert finished at or above his positional draft price 5 times. He returned a severe bust in 7 of them. He played 13 games or fewer in 3 of those seasons — the availability line that separates hits from disasters more sharply than price does.
| Season | Drafted as | Finished | PPG | Games | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | TE16 | TE7 | 12.3 | 15 | — |
| 2024 | TE12 | TE27 | 10.4 | 10 | Severe bust |
| 2023 | TE7 | TE14 | 9.7 | 14 | Severe bust |
| 2022 | TE8 | TE12 | 11.8 | 12 | Severe bust |
| 2021 | TE10 | TE8 | 11 | 15 | Severe bust |
| 2020 | TE21 | TE21 | 10.6 | 11 | Severe bust |
| 2019 | TE24 | TE10 | 9.6 | 15 | Severe bust |
| 2018 | TE27 | TE20 | 5.7 | 16 | Severe bust |
Positional draft rank against final positional finish on PPR total points. A severe bust is a finish outside the top 60 FLEX scorers.
Risk and upside
Our model tiers him high for risk and high for upside. Across the 2026 board those two scores are essentially uncorrelated, so a low-risk label is not a low-ceiling label.
Why the model says high risk: Primary risk: injury-supported risk (90.7) with weekly/market volatility (51.1) as the secondary driver.
Dallas Goedert: common questions
Where is Dallas Goedert being drafted in 2026?
Dallas Goedert is going around pick 122 overall, the TE12 off the board in consensus ADP across the ranking sources we track, though individual sources have him as high as 83 and as low as 142.
Is Dallas Goedert a good pick in 2026?
FAIR PRICE — Draft at price; our board does not show a meaningful discount. Dallas Goedert has a consensus ADP of 122 (TE12). Our published board ranks him #121; target him around pick 122 in a 10-team PPR draft.
How risky is Dallas Goedert?
Our model puts him in the high risk tier. Risk here combines availability history, role certainty, how much the ranking sources disagree, and week-to-week volatility. It is a measure of how wide the range of outcomes looks, not a prediction that he will get hurt.
How many fantasy points will Dallas Goedert score in 2026?
Our projection has him at about 10.1 points per game in full PPR, or roughly 126 on the season once 4.5 projected games lost are priced in. Projections are a central estimate, not a floor.
Keep drafting
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ADP is consensus across the ranking sources Auto Draft Years tracks. Historical finishes are positional ranks on PPR total points, 2018–2025. Market snapshot Sep 7, 2026. For informational and entertainment purposes only — projections are estimates, not forecasts.