QB · GB · 2026 fantasy outlook
Jordan Love: 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Jordan Love finished QB15 in 2025, but now costs QB19 at pick 138.25. That is 4 positional places behind his last finish; it creates a useful comparison, not a promise that he repeats it. Our published board ranks him #133, near consensus: draft at price, around pick 138.
Why this draft target?
- Our season projection is 16.5 PPR points per game. The model labels his risk medium and upside high.
- His latest recorded season (2025) finished at QB15. The table below shows the full 5-season sample rather than treating one finish as a forecast.
- The unblended model ranks him #116, separately from the published board's #133. That disagreement is a caution to examine, not a different pick recommendation.
The verdict compares consensus ADP with the published board, not the raw model. A difference within two picks or 5% of ADP, whichever is larger, is fair price. Target pick also accounts for acquisition timing; it is not a guarantee of availability.
Where the market has him
Our published board has him at 133, 5.25 places higher than consensus ADP. Across 16 ranking sources the spread is 19.7 places — a long way apart.
The acquisition target is pick 138, round 14 in a 10-team league. Board rank orders player value; the target pick also accounts for market price. It is a guide, not a guarantee that the player will still be available. The replacement-level quarterback we measure him against is Jalen Hurts, which is the honest comparison: the question is never whether he is good, it is how much better he is than the player you could have instead.
Compare the alternatives
Check the price and trade-offs side by side before deciding.
The track record
Across 4 drafted seasons in our sample, Jordan Love finished at or above his positional draft price 2 times. He returned a severe bust in 1 of them.
| Season | Drafted as | Finished | PPG | Games | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | QB18 | QB15 | 16.1 | 15 | — |
| 2024 | QB10 | QB17 | 16.3 | 15 | — |
| 2023 | QB24 | QB5 | 19.4 | 17 | — |
| 2021 | QB46 | QB50 | 4 | — | Severe bust |
| 2020 | QB42 | — | — | — | Severe bust |
Positional draft rank against final positional finish on PPR total points. A severe bust is a finish outside the top 18 quarterbacks.
Risk and upside
Our model tiers him medium for risk and high for upside. Across the 2026 board those two scores are essentially uncorrelated, so a low-risk label is not a low-ceiling label.
Why the model says medium risk: Moderate risk: injury-supported risk (71.8) with weekly/market volatility (54.6) as the secondary driver.
Jordan Love: common questions
Where is Jordan Love being drafted in 2026?
Jordan Love is going around pick 138.25 overall, the QB19 off the board in consensus ADP across the ranking sources we track, though individual sources have him as high as 113 and as low as 163.
Is Jordan Love a good pick in 2026?
FAIR PRICE — Draft at price; our board does not show a meaningful discount. Jordan Love has a consensus ADP of 138.25 (QB19). Our published board ranks him #133; target him around pick 138 in a 10-team PPR draft.
How risky is Jordan Love?
Our model puts him in the medium risk tier. Risk here combines availability history, role certainty, how much the ranking sources disagree, and week-to-week volatility. It is a measure of how wide the range of outcomes looks, not a prediction that he will get hurt.
How many fantasy points will Jordan Love score in 2026?
Our projection has him at about 16.5 points per game in full PPR, or roughly 221 on the season once 3.6 projected games lost are priced in. Projections are a central estimate, not a floor.
Keep drafting
Drafted around the same cost
ADP is consensus across the ranking sources Auto Draft Years tracks. Historical finishes are positional ranks on PPR total points, 2020–2025. Market snapshot Sep 7, 2026. For informational and entertainment purposes only — projections are estimates, not forecasts.