QB · JAX · 2026 fantasy outlook
Trevor Lawrence: 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Trevor Lawrence went from QB27 in 2024 to QB4 in 2025. His current QB10 price at pick 91.25 should be judged against both seasons rather than assuming the latest finish repeats. Our published board ranks him #89, near consensus: draft at price, around pick 91.
Why this draft target?
- Our season projection is 18.2 PPR points per game. The model labels his risk low and upside high.
- His latest recorded season (2025) finished at QB4. The table below shows the full 5-season sample rather than treating one finish as a forecast.
The verdict compares consensus ADP with the published board, not the raw model. A difference within two picks or 5% of ADP, whichever is larger, is fair price. Target pick also accounts for acquisition timing; it is not a guarantee of availability.
Where the market has him
Our published board has him at 89, 2.25 places higher than consensus ADP. Across 16 ranking sources the spread is 13.6 places — reasonably close.
The acquisition target is pick 91, round 10 in a 10-team league. Board rank orders player value; the target pick also accounts for market price. It is a guide, not a guarantee that the player will still be available. The replacement-level quarterback we measure him against is Jalen Hurts, which is the honest comparison: the question is never whether he is good, it is how much better he is than the player you could have instead.
Compare the alternatives
Check the price and trade-offs side by side before deciding.
The track record
Across 5 drafted seasons in our sample, Trevor Lawrence finished at or above his positional draft price 2 times. He returned a severe bust in 2 of them. He played 13 games or fewer in 1 of those seasons — the availability line that separates hits from disasters more sharply than price does.
| Season | Drafted as | Finished | PPG | Games | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | QB20 | QB4 | 20.6 | 17 | — |
| 2024 | QB16 | QB27 | 15.2 | 10 | Severe bust |
| 2023 | QB8 | QB13 | 17.3 | 16 | — |
| 2022 | QB18 | QB8 | 17.9 | 17 | — |
| 2021 | QB14 | QB22 | 12.7 | 17 | Severe bust |
Positional draft rank against final positional finish on PPR total points. A severe bust is a finish outside the top 18 quarterbacks.
Risk and upside
Our model tiers him low for risk and high for upside. Across the 2026 board those two scores are essentially uncorrelated, so a low-risk label is not a low-ceiling label.
Why the model says low risk: Low risk profile: weekly/market volatility (71.8) with injury-supported risk (58.2) as the secondary driver.
Trevor Lawrence: common questions
Where is Trevor Lawrence being drafted in 2026?
Trevor Lawrence is going around pick 91.25 overall, the QB10 off the board in consensus ADP across the ranking sources we track, though individual sources have him as high as 65 and as low as 122.
Is Trevor Lawrence a good pick in 2026?
FAIR PRICE — Draft at price; our board does not show a meaningful discount. Trevor Lawrence has a consensus ADP of 91.25 (QB10). Our published board ranks him #89; target him around pick 91 in a 10-team PPR draft.
How risky is Trevor Lawrence?
Our model puts him in the low risk tier. Risk here combines availability history, role certainty, how much the ranking sources disagree, and week-to-week volatility. It is a measure of how wide the range of outcomes looks, not a prediction that he will get hurt.
How many fantasy points will Trevor Lawrence score in 2026?
Our projection has him at about 18.2 points per game in full PPR, or roughly 256 on the season once 2.9 projected games lost are priced in. Projections are a central estimate, not a floor.
Keep drafting
Drafted around the same cost
ADP is consensus across the ranking sources Auto Draft Years tracks. Historical finishes are positional ranks on PPR total points, 2021–2025. Market snapshot Sep 7, 2026. For informational and entertainment purposes only — projections are estimates, not forecasts.