WR · WAS · 2026 fantasy outlook
Deebo Samuel: 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Deebo Samuel went from WR44 in 2024 to WR25 in 2025. His current WR49 price at pick 115.7 should be judged against both seasons rather than assuming the latest finish repeats. Our published board ranks him #107, ahead of his price: draft at ADP, with pick 113 as the target.
Why this draft target?
- Our season projection is 7.3 PPR points per game. The model labels his risk low and upside high.
- His latest recorded season (2025) finished at WR25. The table below shows the full 7-season sample rather than treating one finish as a forecast.
- The unblended model ranks him #149, separately from the published board's #107. That disagreement is a caution to examine, not a different pick recommendation.
The verdict compares consensus ADP with the published board, not the raw model. A difference within two picks or 5% of ADP, whichever is larger, is fair price. Target pick also accounts for acquisition timing; it is not a guarantee of availability.
Where the market has him
Our published board has him at 107, 8.7 places higher than consensus ADP. Across 1 ranking sources the spread is 0 places — tightly clustered. The unblended model sits about 33 places below the market. It is a separate signal from the published board and target pick.
The acquisition target is pick 113, round 12 in a 10-team league. Board rank orders player value; the target pick also accounts for market price. It is a guide, not a guarantee that the player will still be available. The replacement-level wide receiver we measure him against is Wan'Dale Robinson, which is the honest comparison: the question is never whether he is good, it is how much better he is than the player you could have instead.
Compare the alternatives
Check the price and trade-offs side by side before deciding.
The track record
Across 7 drafted seasons in our sample, Deebo Samuel finished at or above his positional draft price 4 times. He returned a severe bust in 3 of them. He played 13 games or fewer in 2 of those seasons — the availability line that separates hits from disasters more sharply than price does.
| Season | Drafted as | Finished | PPG | Games | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WR36 | WR25 | 11.8 | 16 | — |
| 2024 | WR15 | WR44 | 10.2 | 15 | Severe bust |
| 2023 | WR17 | WR15 | 16.2 | 15 | — |
| 2022 | WR6 | WR38 | 13 | 13 | Severe bust |
| 2021 | WR35 | WR3 | 21.2 | 16 | — |
| 2020 | WR35 | WR96 | 11.5 | 7 | Severe bust |
| 2019 | WR59 | WR31 | 12.6 | 15 | — |
Positional draft rank against final positional finish on PPR total points. A severe bust is a finish outside the top 60 FLEX scorers.
Risk and upside
Our model tiers him low for risk and high for upside. Across the 2026 board those two scores are essentially uncorrelated, so a low-risk label is not a low-ceiling label.
Why the model says low risk: Low risk profile: weekly/market volatility (36.0) with role uncertainty (23.4) as the secondary driver.
Deebo Samuel: common questions
Where is Deebo Samuel being drafted in 2026?
Deebo Samuel is going around pick 115.7 overall, the WR49 off the board in consensus ADP across the ranking sources we track, though individual sources have him as high as 116 and as low as 116.
Is Deebo Samuel a good pick in 2026?
VALUE — Draft at the current price if he fits your roster. Deebo Samuel has a consensus ADP of 115.7 (WR49). Our published board ranks him #107; target him around pick 113 in a 10-team PPR draft.
How risky is Deebo Samuel?
Our model puts him in the low risk tier. Risk here combines availability history, role certainty, how much the ranking sources disagree, and week-to-week volatility. It is a measure of how wide the range of outcomes looks, not a prediction that he will get hurt.
How many fantasy points will Deebo Samuel score in 2026?
Our projection has him at about 7.3 points per game in full PPR, or roughly 123 on the season once 0.6 projected games lost are priced in. Projections are a central estimate, not a floor.
Keep drafting
Drafted around the same cost
ADP is consensus across the ranking sources Auto Draft Years tracks. Historical finishes are positional ranks on PPR total points, 2019–2025. Market snapshot Sep 7, 2026. For informational and entertainment purposes only — projections are estimates, not forecasts.