TE · KC · 2026 fantasy outlook
Travis Kelce: 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Travis Kelce finished TE3 in 2025, but now costs TE11 at pick 112.5. That is 8 positional places behind his last finish; it creates a useful comparison, not a promise that he repeats it. Our published board ranks him #109, near consensus: draft at price, around pick 112.
Why this draft target?
- Our season projection is 10.2 PPR points per game. The model labels his risk low and upside high.
- His latest recorded season (2025) finished at TE3. The table below shows the full 10-season sample rather than treating one finish as a forecast.
- The unblended model ranks him #88, separately from the published board's #109. That disagreement is a caution to examine, not a different pick recommendation.
The verdict compares consensus ADP with the published board, not the raw model. A difference within two picks or 5% of ADP, whichever is larger, is fair price. Target pick also accounts for acquisition timing; it is not a guarantee of availability.
Where the market has him
Our published board has him at 109, 3.5 places higher than consensus ADP. Across 16 ranking sources the spread is 17.1 places — a long way apart. The unblended model sits about 24 places above the market. It is a separate signal from the published board and target pick.
The acquisition target is pick 112, round 12 in a 10-team league. Board rank orders player value; the target pick also accounts for market price. It is a guide, not a guarantee that the player will still be available. The replacement-level tight end we measure him against is Harold Fannin, which is the honest comparison: the question is never whether he is good, it is how much better he is than the player you could have instead.
Compare the alternatives
Check the price and trade-offs side by side before deciding.
The track record
Across 10 drafted seasons in our sample, Travis Kelce finished at or above his positional draft price 7 times.
| Season | Drafted as | Finished | PPG | Games | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | TE5 | TE3 | 11.4 | 17 | — |
| 2024 | TE1 | TE5 | 12.2 | 16 | — |
| 2023 | TE1 | TE3 | 14.6 | 15 | — |
| 2022 | TE1 | TE1 | 18.6 | 17 | — |
| 2021 | TE1 | TE2 | 16.4 | 16 | — |
| 2020 | TE1 | TE1 | 20.9 | 15 | — |
| 2019 | TE1 | TE1 | 15.9 | 16 | — |
| 2018 | TE2 | TE1 | 18.4 | 16 | — |
| 2017 | TE2 | TE1 | 15.6 | 15 | — |
| 2016 | TE4 | TE1 | 13.9 | 16 | — |
Positional draft rank against final positional finish on PPR total points. A severe bust is a finish outside the top 60 FLEX scorers.
Risk and upside
Our model tiers him low for risk and high for upside. Across the 2026 board those two scores are essentially uncorrelated, so a low-risk label is not a low-ceiling label.
Why the model says low risk: Low risk profile: injury-supported risk (59.2) with weekly/market volatility (45.2) as the secondary driver.
Travis Kelce: common questions
Where is Travis Kelce being drafted in 2026?
Travis Kelce is going around pick 112.5 overall, the TE11 off the board in consensus ADP across the ranking sources we track, though individual sources have him as high as 82 and as low as 140.
Is Travis Kelce a good pick in 2026?
FAIR PRICE — Draft at price; our board does not show a meaningful discount. Travis Kelce has a consensus ADP of 112.5 (TE11). Our published board ranks him #109; target him around pick 112 in a 10-team PPR draft.
How risky is Travis Kelce?
Our model puts him in the low risk tier. Risk here combines availability history, role certainty, how much the ranking sources disagree, and week-to-week volatility. It is a measure of how wide the range of outcomes looks, not a prediction that he will get hurt.
How many fantasy points will Travis Kelce score in 2026?
Our projection has him at about 10.2 points per game in full PPR, or roughly 143 on the season once 3 projected games lost are priced in. Projections are a central estimate, not a floor.
Keep drafting
Drafted around the same cost
ADP is consensus across the ranking sources Auto Draft Years tracks. Historical finishes are positional ranks on PPR total points, 2016–2025. Market snapshot Sep 7, 2026. For informational and entertainment purposes only — projections are estimates, not forecasts.