QB · KC · 2026 fantasy outlook
Patrick Mahomes: 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Patrick Mahomes's QB12 price at pick 112.45 is close to his QB11 finish in 2025. His 9-season record below supplies the context for paying that price again. Our published board ranks him #106, ahead of his price: draft at ADP, with pick 112 as the target.
Why this draft target?
- Our season projection is 18.9 PPR points per game. The model labels his risk low and upside high.
- His latest recorded season (2025) finished at QB11. The table below shows the full 9-season sample rather than treating one finish as a forecast.
- The unblended model ranks him #84, separately from the published board's #106. That disagreement is a caution to examine, not a different pick recommendation.
The verdict compares consensus ADP with the published board, not the raw model. A difference within two picks or 5% of ADP, whichever is larger, is fair price. Target pick also accounts for acquisition timing; it is not a guarantee of availability.
Where the market has him
Our published board has him at 106, 6.45 places higher than consensus ADP. Across 2 ranking sources the spread is 6.3 places — reasonably close. The unblended model sits about 28 places above the market. It is a separate signal from the published board and target pick.
The acquisition target is pick 112, round 12 in a 10-team league. Board rank orders player value; the target pick also accounts for market price. It is a guide, not a guarantee that the player will still be available. The replacement-level quarterback we measure him against is Jalen Hurts, which is the honest comparison: the question is never whether he is good, it is how much better he is than the player you could have instead.
Compare the alternatives
Check the price and trade-offs side by side before deciding.
The track record
Across 9 drafted seasons in our sample, Patrick Mahomes finished at or above his positional draft price 2 times. He returned a severe bust in 1 of them.
| Season | Drafted as | Finished | PPG | Games | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | QB6 | QB11 | 21.2 | 14 | — |
| 2024 | QB2 | QB11 | 18.4 | 16 | — |
| 2023 | QB1 | QB8 | 18.4 | 16 | — |
| 2022 | QB2 | QB1 | 25.3 | 17 | — |
| 2021 | QB1 | QB4 | 22 | 17 | — |
| 2020 | QB1 | QB4 | 25.4 | 15 | — |
| 2019 | QB1 | QB8 | 20.9 | 14 | — |
| 2018 | QB15 | QB1 | 26.1 | 16 | — |
| 2017 | QB34 | QB51 | 10.4 | — | Severe bust |
Positional draft rank against final positional finish on PPR total points. A severe bust is a finish outside the top 18 quarterbacks.
Risk and upside
Our model tiers him low for risk and high for upside. Across the 2026 board those two scores are essentially uncorrelated, so a low-risk label is not a low-ceiling label.
Why the model says low risk: Low risk profile: injury-supported risk (51.1) with weekly/market volatility (38.8) as the secondary driver.
Patrick Mahomes: common questions
Where is Patrick Mahomes being drafted in 2026?
Patrick Mahomes is going around pick 112.45 overall, the QB12 off the board in consensus ADP across the ranking sources we track, though individual sources have him as high as 108 and as low as 117.
Is Patrick Mahomes a good pick in 2026?
VALUE — Draft at the current price if he fits your roster. Patrick Mahomes has a consensus ADP of 112.45 (QB12). Our published board ranks him #106; target him around pick 112 in a 10-team PPR draft.
How risky is Patrick Mahomes?
Our model puts him in the low risk tier. Risk here combines availability history, role certainty, how much the ranking sources disagree, and week-to-week volatility. It is a measure of how wide the range of outcomes looks, not a prediction that he will get hurt.
How many fantasy points will Patrick Mahomes score in 2026?
Our projection has him at about 18.9 points per game in full PPR, or roughly 264 on the season once 2.6 projected games lost are priced in. Projections are a central estimate, not a floor.
Keep drafting
Drafted around the same cost
ADP is consensus across the ranking sources Auto Draft Years tracks. Historical finishes are positional ranks on PPR total points, 2017–2025. Market snapshot Sep 7, 2026. For informational and entertainment purposes only — projections are estimates, not forecasts.