QB · NYG · 2026 fantasy outlook
Jaxson Dart: 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Jaxson Dart's one drafted season in this sample ended at QB14 in 2025. The market now prices him as QB14, pick 111.5; one finish is not a reliable floor. Our published board ranks him #110, near consensus: draft at price, around pick 112.
Why this draft target?
- Our season projection is 18.3 PPR points per game. The model labels his risk high and upside moderate.
- There is only one drafted season in this historical sample (2025). That is limited evidence for judging year-to-year consistency.
- The unblended model ranks him #74, separately from the published board's #110. That disagreement is a caution to examine, not a different pick recommendation.
The verdict compares consensus ADP with the published board, not the raw model. A difference within two picks or 5% of ADP, whichever is larger, is fair price. Target pick also accounts for acquisition timing; it is not a guarantee of availability.
Where the market has him
Our published board has him at 110, effectively level with the market. Across 16 ranking sources the spread is 22.6 places — a long way apart. The unblended model sits about 38 places above the market. It is a separate signal from the published board and target pick.
The acquisition target is pick 112, round 12 in a 10-team league. Board rank orders player value; the target pick also accounts for market price. It is a guide, not a guarantee that the player will still be available. The replacement-level quarterback we measure him against is Jalen Hurts, which is the honest comparison: the question is never whether he is good, it is how much better he is than the player you could have instead.
Compare the alternatives
Check the price and trade-offs side by side before deciding.
The track record
Across 1 drafted season in our sample, Jaxson Dart finished at or above his positional draft price 1 time.
| Season | Drafted as | Finished | PPG | Games | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | QB30 | QB14 | 17.6 | 14 | — |
Positional draft rank against final positional finish on PPR total points. A severe bust is a finish outside the top 18 quarterbacks.
Risk and upside
Our model tiers him high for risk and moderate for upside. Across the 2026 board those two scores are essentially uncorrelated, so a low-risk label is not a low-ceiling label.
Why the model says high risk: Moderate risk: weekly/market volatility (88.7) with role uncertainty (48.7) as the secondary driver.
Jaxson Dart: common questions
Where is Jaxson Dart being drafted in 2026?
Jaxson Dart is going around pick 111.5 overall, the QB14 off the board in consensus ADP across the ranking sources we track, though individual sources have him as high as 62 and as low as 147.
Is Jaxson Dart a good pick in 2026?
FAIR PRICE — Draft at price; our board does not show a meaningful discount. Jaxson Dart has a consensus ADP of 111.5 (QB14). Our published board ranks him #110; target him around pick 112 in a 10-team PPR draft.
How risky is Jaxson Dart?
Our model puts him in the high risk tier. Risk here combines availability history, role certainty, how much the ranking sources disagree, and week-to-week volatility. It is a measure of how wide the range of outcomes looks, not a prediction that he will get hurt.
How many fantasy points will Jaxson Dart score in 2026?
Our projection has him at about 18.3 points per game in full PPR, or roughly 311 on the season once 0 projected games lost are priced in. Projections are a central estimate, not a floor.
Keep drafting
Drafted around the same cost
ADP is consensus across the ranking sources Auto Draft Years tracks. Historical finishes are positional ranks on PPR total points, 2025–2025. Market snapshot Sep 7, 2026. For informational and entertainment purposes only — projections are estimates, not forecasts.